Dynamic analysis and forecasting in insurance


The level of development of the insurance market is influenced by numerous factors. One of the main indicators of the development of insurance is the amount of realized insurance premium, which aims to, in addition to providing full protection of the insured, at the same time enable the realization of profit to the insurance company. It is necessary to provide sufficient funds to cover the risk due to the uncertainty that accompanies the moment of occurrence and the amount of damage. Statistical methods can be used to gain new knowledge that will further provide a basis for planning future activities of insurance companies. Based on historical data on life and non-life insurance premiums and the number of insurances published on the official website of the National Bank of Serbia, the paper will predict future movements of gross insurance premiums by causal method or regression analysis. The main goal of the research is to emphasize the importance of the insurance sector as one of the indicators of the development of the entire economy where the insurance premium plays an important role. Special attention is paid to the dynamic analysis of the movement of the realized insurance premium in the period from 2011 to 2020, with special reference to the realized life and non-life insurance premium during the observed period. The degree of development of the insurance market can be measured by the share of premiums in gross domestic product as well as the amount of insurance premiums per capita. Although the insurance market in Serbia is insufficiently developed, the analyzed key indicators of development indicate that there are positive trends during the observed period.